Trump’s special envoy Keith Kellogg presents a plan on Ukraine, where peace sounds inviting but it threatens to compromise a possible advantage to Russia that uses the pause of ceasefire for preparation or further consolidation against the West.
In a world trying to find solutions to the protracted war in Ukraine, the selection of Keith Kellogg as a special envoy by Donald Trump for Ukraine and Russia ushers into public arena a controversial peace initiative. The former national security advisor to Trump, Keith Kellogg, had provided an initiative that would bring the war to a conclusive end. However, the very peace strategy outlined has numerous risks that are likely to favor Russian President Vladimir Putin. Here’s a closer look at Kellogg’s proposal and its potential implications.
Kellogg’s Vision for Peace in Ukraine: A Ceasefire and Negotiation
Keith Kellogg’s peace plan is based on a ceasefire to “freeze” the current front lines in Ukraine. Both Russia and Ukraine would be forced to negotiate, but with an emphasis on stopping further military action. However, the details of this plan raise questions about its long-term effectiveness and the broader geopolitical consequences.
Key Elements of the Plan
Kellogg’s plan outlines several key points that reflect Trump’s broader “America First” approach to foreign policy:
Ceasefire and Demilitarized Zone: The frontlines would be frozen, and a demilitarized zone would be established. This would provide temporary relief to Ukraine, allowing for future diplomatic negotiations. However, the plan assumes that Russia will honor the ceasefire, something Moscow has repeatedly failed to do in the past.
Delay of Ukrainian Entry into NATO The program presents a proposal for deferral in Ukraine’s NATO membership on an indefinite basis. For Kyiv, it will look like a great concession while receiving limited security guarantees from the United States.
U.S. Arms Aid Conditional on Negotiation: Future U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine would depend on the country’s negotiating with Russia. The United States would maintain arming the Ukraine to combat Russian advances, but the plan recognizes limits to U.S. resources.
Russia will receive limited sanctions relief, but full relief is expected to occur once a peace deal is signed, in exchange for a ceasefire. This might be a double-edged sword because it could incite Russia to take strategic advantage of the ceasefire.
Potential Pitfalls of the Peace Plan
The plan is marketed as ending violence, but several challenges make it a high-risk proposal:
Russia’s History of Violating Ceasefires: Moscow has used ceasefires in the past to regroup militarily and to pursue territorial objectives. A temporary cessation of hostilities could be used by Russia to consolidate its position before continuing its offensive.
Creating the demilitarized zone would pose immense international peacekeeping challenges. The demilitarized zone size and its requirements for a constant presence to monitor all of these installations could exhaust resources if Russia continues in the way they are behaving now.
Western Unity in Jeopardy: Kellogg’s proposal is a move away from the values-based foreign policy that has defined Western support for Ukraine. This may compromise the unity of the West and embolden authoritarian regimes like Russia, potentially threatening the global order.
Arms Aid Limitations: Although Kellogg supports arming Ukraine, the proposal recognizes that the U.S. military’s capacity to sustain aid is limited. With Ukraine already stretched thin in terms of resources, providing more weapons may not yield the desired effect.
Conclusion: A Risky Path to Peace?
Kellogg’s peace plan offers a possible avenue to end the war in Ukraine, but it comes with significant risks. Perhaps in pushing for a ceasefire and delayed NATO membership, the program may inadvertently strengthen Russia’s hand in the process of negotiations. While Western fatigue is a reality, premature withdrawal from supporting Ukraine undermines the principles of sovereignty and democracy that the West has long championed. Ultimately, the proposal from Kellogg’s might bring an end to violence temporarily but open a new chapter where Putin might use the situation for his strategic advantage.
FAQs:
1. What is the peace plan of Keith Kellogg for Ukraine?
Keith Kellogg’s peace plan emphasizes freezing the frontlines through a ceasefire, delaying Ukraine’s membership into NATO, and negotiating a settlement with Russia. The U.S. would continue to provide limited military support to Ukraine while negotiating a long-term peace agreement.
2. Why should Kellogg want Ukraine not to join NATO immediately?
Kellogg feels that it is high time that NATO membership of Ukraine be stalled indefinitely in the interests of a full-fledged settlement. That would be a heavy concession that Ukraine had longed for joining NATOs.
3. What are the risks of the ceasefire in Kellogg’s plan?
The plan is based on an assumption that Russia will respect the ceasefire, but Moscow has done it before and broken it to regroup and expand its territorial control. The demilitarized zone and the need for international peacekeepers also present logistical and financial challenges.
4. How would the U.S. support Ukraine under Kellogg’s plan?
The U.S. would supply arms to Ukraine so that it can defend itself, but any further military aid would be conditional upon Ukraine entering into peace negotiations with Russia.
5. Would Russia gain from Kellogg’s peace plan?
Yes. The plan would allow Russia to use the ceasefire to entrench its position and then resume its military campaign when Ukraine is weakened, maybe even gaining some relief from sanctions before a peace agreement is concluded.