Putin has signed an updated nuclear doctrine, which signals lower nuclear threshold for a retaliatory response. This after the US escalated tensions when long-range missiles were shipped to Ukraine.
Putin Signs Revised Nuclear Doctrine with Lowered Threshold for Nuclear Response
On November 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a crucial revision to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for potential nuclear retaliation. This new document includes provisions that might lead to the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation against attacks supported by a nuclear power on Russia. It marks an escalation in Russia’s nuclear posture. It coincided with very heightened tension between Russia and Ukraine, especially after the United States gave Ukraine approval to employ long-range missiles on Russian ground.
The timing of the revision has sparked questions about whether it was a direct response to President Joe Biden’s recent decision to provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles, which have the capability to strike deep into Russian territory. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied any direct connection, stating that the revision was in line with earlier decisions to update Russia’s nuclear strategy to reflect current global security challenges.
Key Points of Russia’s New Nuclear Policy
The new doctrine retains several major changes that radically shift Russia’s stance on the strategic level:
Nuclear Response to a Non-Nuclear Attack with External Help: Russia has stated in the revised policy that an attack on Russia, even from a non-nuclear power, would lead to a response using nuclear weapons if supported by a nuclear power. This marks a critical shift in how Russia views its security, as it now includes both direct and indirect support from nuclear powers as a justification for nuclear retaliation. This change dramatically raises the stakes for any involvement of nuclear powers in the Ukraine conflict or other global flashpoints.
Belarus: Protection The new doctrine extends Russia’s nuclear threshold to include potential retaliatory nuclear strikes for the defense of Belarus, Russia’s ally. Belarus borders NATO countries, and the provision indicates that Russia would treat any attack on Belarus as an attack on its sovereignty and security.
Expanded Scenarios for Nuclear Use: The doctrine now expands the scope of situations in which nuclear arms may be used. This means that it is no longer limited to traditional nuclear threats but also encompasses a reaction to air attacks on its terrain using ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, aircraft, and other flying machinery. The scope may embrace many kinds of conventional military operations, whereby Russia would be willing to escalate the level of a conflict if it feels its sovereignty is under threat.
The new doctrine does not ensure an automatic nuclear response but has expanded the uncertainty surrounding the “scale, time, and place” of nuclear retaliation. This ambiguity would add uncertainty to Russia’s nuclear policy and render it harder for adversaries to calculate their risk of escalation – and perhaps might deter such confrontations with Russia either directly or indirectly.
Context: Biden’s Approval of Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine
Russia’s nuclear policy has just been revised, in an apparent response just a day after the country saw the U.S. president approve the use by Ukraine of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems. Those missiles can hit deep into Russian territory, providing an enlarged capability to Ukraine for hitting strategic Russian infrastructure.
The move has been characterized by many as a significant shift in U.S. policy, given that long-range missile systems were hitherto considered something of a “red line” by Russia. Putin has repeatedly warned that any direct military support from NATO countries into Ukraine could escalate the conflict and the authorization of ATACMS only heightens these concerns. A number of experts assert that Russia’s timing of revamping its nuclear doctrine was no coincidence but is a direct response to greater military equipment being supplied to Ukraine.
Global Security and Strategic Calculations
The new doctrine has broad implications for global security. It reinforces the dangers of escalation on the battlefield in Ukraine and may contribute to a more dangerous international environment. With Russian’s nuclear threshold lowered, the possibility of a nuclear response to a miscalculation or misstep grows all the more plausible.
The policy shift may have significant ramifications also for NATO countries and their military strategy. While the West has largely focused on conventional military supply to Ukraine, the new Russian nuclear posture heralds a potential change in how future conflicts are likely to play out. Given that Russia seems to feel increasingly hemmed in and vulnerable, its nuclear weapons may be used more and more to threaten an adversary across the board-and potentially, significantly raise the stakes in any NATO-Russia confrontations.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Escalation in Nuclear Posturing
It is a dangerous escalation in global security tensions by Vladimir Putin’s signing of the revised nuclear doctrine, which lowers the threshold for nuclear retaliation and leaves little doubt that Russia is willing to use its nuclear arsenal to counter even indirect attacks supported by nuclear powers. A rising trend of doctrines shift increasingly reflects concerns about strategic impact as Russian support to Ukraine rises to create a risk of nuclear escalation.
Although the new policy might be presented as a deterrent, it has the potential to heighten miscalculations and further provoke the conflict. The more both Russia and NATO members continue to engage in the undeclared conflict indirectly, the more the world needs to be careful not to push the conflict into a dimension where nuclear weapons will be seen as a viable option.
FAQs
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What is the main change in Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine?
The most important innovation made in Russia’s new nuclear doctrine is that Russia has reduced the nuclear weapons use threshold. An attack on Russia, even with support from a nuclear power, is now considered a ground for nuclear retaliation.
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Russia has revised its nuclear doctrine?
This revision is being perceived as a response to growing tensions, particularly with Ukraine support from the West. The timing coincided with the U.S. authorization of long-range missiles to Ukraine, viewed by Moscow as a serious escalation.
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Does the new doctrine guarantee a nuclear response?
No, for the doctrine emphasizes that nobody knows when and in what conditions Russia will use nuclear weapons. It does not guarantee an immediate nuclear response but signals greater willingness to escalate in certain circumstances.
- This would help Russia to raise the risk of nuclear escalation even though it is harder to predict the reaction Russia might have with regards to a crisis. This increases tension across the world, especially in areas with which Russia feels threatened.
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